Saturday, June 25, 2016

Brexit, Scotref, Petition...

Update, 27 June Monday:
as reported in the Guardian and found in a new Survation poll, "with the Record now openly supporting Sturgeon’s preparations for a second referendum, its poll also found that more SNP supporters voted leave than other parties: 29% of SNP voters backed Brexit, compared to 27% of Scottish Tories, and 17% Labour and 16% Lib Dem voter." (
After all, it may have to do with pro-independence SNP supporters not necessarily objecting to the Leave outcome wholeheartedly.

So, you're probably already aware of the popular petition being circulated since yesterday and has attracted over 1.3 million signatures at the time of posting ( The Independent has already reported it could not find any evidence that such an EU or a UK law exists to lawfully demand a 2nd referendum (…/brexit-petition-latest-eu-re…) and prior attempts did not fully succeed, but it is a worthwhile attempt, especially considering how problematic the methodologies behind such a defining referendum are. However, even if a 2nd referendum were held, my money is on Leave returning an even higher victory (unfortunately!). And among reasons why that would be the case, here is one, that attracted my attention when I checked the map of the signatories of the petition.
Below are two images: the proportion of Remain voters across the UK and signatories of the petition:
The image on the left represents the proportion of Remain votes. Darker the tone, higher the Remain proportion, and as we all know well by now, darker tones are concentrated around Scotland, London and Northern Ireland (as well as parts of the Southeast, North Wales and West Midlands).
The image on the right represents the distribution of signatories to the petition = people unhappy with the result = mainly Remain voters. Darker tones mean more signatures. The darker tones are concentrated around London, the Southeast and Northern Ireland.
Normally, you would expect these two maps to mimic one another. And you do see a one significant difference: Scotland!
From what I can gather now (and it's simplistic and early I know), this is probably due to:
Scotland being happy to have voted Remain and justified themselves a 2nd independence referendum and that they prioritise this over the Brexit catastrophe (which, I would totally understand).
Can anyone think of any other early, possible reason?